Graphics Outlook 2003

January 5, 2003 by Leonidas / translated January 10, 2003 by zeckensack & nggalai / page 4 of 4

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   Third quarter:   nVidia NV34

After releasing the NV31, nVidia will have need for an even more trimmed down version of the GeForceFX, this time to serve the true low-cost market. As NV34 will still be made on the same 0.13 micron process as NV31 and GeForceFX, nVidia needs to leave out some more bits and pieces or find other solutions to make it fit into the market far below 200€. We honestly don't know what they intend to do (only two rendering pipelines?) - we're in for a surprise.

We don't believe the chip will fall below DirectX9's minimum requirements, otherwise it wouldn't bear the first "3" in its code name "NV34". nVidia's strategy with code names has been perfectly clear so far and hasn't failed us even once. What's nVidia likely trying to accomplish with this chip is bringing DirectX9 to the masses and attacking the RV350 from below, by price.

   Fourth quarter:   nVidia NV35

Towards the end of the year nVidia will serve up the NV35 as a refresh to the GeForceFX series. Following their history of refresh chips (Riva TNT -> Riva TNT2, GeForce -> GeForce2, GeForce3 -> GeForce4 Ti), the NV35 will feature slight architectural changes coupled with increased clock speeds. We don't expect to see a new architecture with this chip, that will have to wait until 2004's NV40. It's still likely for nVidia to further enhance programmmability - not making huge leaps, but still apparent steps forward.

Just how much more frequency headroom nVidia manage to squeeze out of the 0.13 micron process that's still planned for NV35 cannot be predicted - chip designers never cease to amaze us with speed improvements purely gained from experience on a certain manufacturing node. A possible big change might come in the form of a 256 bit memory interface. That would of course make the chip blazingly fast when coupled with the right memory chips. And it would naturally come at a price. Similar to GeForceFX earlier in the year, NV35 graphics cards will start out at prices around 500€.

   Fourth quarter:   ATi R400

Answering nVidia's GeForceFX refresh NV35, ATi will let loose the R400 in the same quarter. The code name's number starting with a "4" generally signifies a new generation, but DirectX10 will not nearly be ready by then. This way, the R400 will "only" be a new generation because of higer flexibility coming with the DirectX 9.0+ marking.

Of course the R400 will be made on a 0.13 micron process, pulling even with the nVidia chips in the clock speed department. We are prepared for a head-to-head race between R400 and NV35, it will be interesting to see which one gets to market first, and which one will rule the clock speed game. Regarding architecture, the opponents won't differ all that much. As of yet, ATi informs us that the R400 will be ready by late summer but ATi generally only hand out launch dates. We think the final product will be shipped in the 4th quarter, at about the same time as NV35 cards, at prices in the 400 to 500€ range.

   Fourth quarter:   Trident XP8

XP4 and XP4e aside, Trident also has the XP8 on their roadmaps, which is supposed to sample in July and to go into mass-production in October. This one is planned as a DirectX 9.x chip running at a core clock of 350MHz, with memory at around 500MHz. That's about all we know about the XP8. And even these specifications - feeling a lot like a rough estimate - are still subject to change, quite possibly downward.

Following Trident's tradition, the chip will likely be designed for minimum transistor count and production cost. This is also hinted at by the "0.13 or 0.10 micron" process projection, while we really don't see any 0.10 micron graphics chips coming up during 2003, except for wishful thinking maybe.

According to the available XP4 data we can hardly make a prediction, except for the direct opponents: ATi RV350 and nVidia NV31. We can't know today whether the XP4 will come out on top but it does seem possible. The decisive factor will be Trident's ability to follow their own schedule. Repeating XP4 and being half a year late would have the XP8 steamrolled by the competition.

   Fourth quarter:   S3 DeltaChrome 2

Another refresh chip planned already for release towards the end of this year is S3's DeltaChrome 2. There won't be any significant architectural changes from the original DeltaChrome, but of course increases in clock speed and a few minor enhancements will be implemented, just as is expected for all fourth quarter's refresh chips. S3 running the chip at 400MHz with synchronous memory operation is very likely. That memory will then be DDR/II memory, but it really doesn't matter much for performance.

Additionally, S3 wants to tweak DeltaChrome 2 for increased efficiency, whatever that means. Considering the currently known specifications, this chip will be no match for ATi's R400 and nVidia's NV35, both to come in the same time frame. Competing with these two isn't even the plan. S3 probably wants the DeltaChrome 2 to go for the 200€ segment, where RV350 and NV31 will sit plus other chips after dropping from their former higher-end status.

   Conclusion and a glimpse at 2004

Well, the first thing that should be obvious so far is that the first half of 2003 will be crowded with newly released graphics chips - and most of them will likely make an appearance at CeBIT :-). It's rather doubtful whether they'll all make it to market in time. We'll surely witness a few delays, leaving some more chip releases for the 2nd half of the year. But if all release schedules hold, especially in the 2nd quarter we'll see such a host of new chips that some of them will have a hard time finding a place in a crowded market.

Concerning the balance of power, after the current regency of the Radeon 9700 Pro and the rather short supremacy of the GeForceFX, we expect tough wrestles between GeForceFX and R350 at the high-end, beginning in the 2nd quarter. And the NV31 and RV350 will have to battle it out in the mainstream segment. The fourth quarter will see the NV35 and R400 at the high-end, with as of yet unknown outcome. But we'll go out on a limb and say that it's going to be close.

So in our humble opinion, the year 2003 will turn out about equal for nVidia and ATi, on a very high performace level. Though quite unlikely, it's not impossible to imagine a third player scoring as well. Recounting the numerous projects of Trident, SiS, Matrox, PowerVR and S3 there certainly won't be a lack of challengers, maybe 3Dlabs will add one or more desktop graphics chips as well.

With 2003's graphics market nicely crowded, there are already some hints towards 2004's chips. Not in much technical detail, rather as rough schedules: there would be Trident's XP10 planned for the 2nd quarter of 2004, but lacking target specs. The same holds true for the S3 Destination, slated for the 2nd half of 2004. This successor to the current DeltaChrome is planned to support DirectX9 or even DirectX10 and will deliver four to five times the performance - at least according to S3 :-).

A true new architecture will show up in form of nVidia's NV40, slated for the third quarter of 2004. Looking at the far-off release, this should at least in theory already be a DirectX10 chip, even without knowing when DirectX10 will be ready. And finally, there is ATi's R500 looming on the horizon, with both target specifications (also eventually DirectX10) and precise schedule unknown.